Flood risk set to exacerbate housing inequality in the UK
Our recent research into climate resilience provides an opportunity to understand how the UK public makes decisions about where to live in the face of increasing flood risk. The public recognises that there is a housing crisis, with two-thirds saying that there is not enough housing in the UK for the population (66%). Despite this, they’re worried people won’t want to buy homes in areas at risk of flooding (73%) and, truthfully, wouldn’t want to move to flood-prone areas themselves: 2 in 3 adults said they would not even consider moving to an area that was considered to be prone to flooding, while 1 in 2 (48%) said they would actively consider relocating if their area became flood-prone.
This being said, not all members of the public are the same when it comes to homeownership: some already own their dream homes and would never consider moving, while others are accustomed to moving around on a regular basis. To understand more about what drives decision-making for people in different housing situations, we categorised homeowners and renters into four groups: future buyers; transition homeowners; lifelong renters; and long-haul homeowners. These groups were marked exclusively by their current homeowner status and the amount of time they intend to live in their property before buying or moving elsewhere (see the full breakdown below).
We conducted a split-sample test to mitigate against the impact of loss aversion, asking half the public whether they would consider moving to an area that was prone to flooding and the other half whether they would consider moving away from their area if it suddenly became prone to flooding.
Unsurprisingly, long-haul homeowners were least willing to move across the board. Future buyers were most willing to move to an area at risk of flooding, though they weren’t particularly enthusiastic about it: only 7% said they would strongly consider buying a home in a flood-prone area, which was largely aligned with the other three groups.
Figure 1: Imagine that you want to move to a new area but the area is considered to be prone to flooding. To what extent would you consider moving to this area? [Split A]
Despite lukewarm agreement, 1 in 3 future buyers said they would consider moving to a flood-prone area - a willingness largely driven by age and income. Future buyers tend to be younger and earning lower incomes, suggesting they would consider these homes out of desperation, not desire.
Figure 2: Average willingness to move to a flood-prone area, by age
When it came to willingness to leave, nearly half of the general public (48%) said they would consider moving away from their area if it became prone to flooding. Given how reluctant people typically are to give up what they already have, this highlights the growing concern within communities about the impact of flooding. Two-thirds of future buyers and transition homeowners would consider moving away from their areas, with a quarter saying they would strongly consider it.
Figure 3: Imagine that the area you live in becomes prone to flooding in the next few years. To what extent would you consider moving to a different area? [Split B]
This suggests that as flooding becomes more frequent and more severe, inequalities are likely to widen. Those who are able to relocate will do so, and those who cannot - including the elderly, those with caring responsibilities, people living with disabilities, and those on lower incomes - could be left behind in increasingly vulnerable communities. Lifelong renters and long-haul homeowners - both of which were more likely to be older - were much less likely to say they would consider moving away. Similar to the above, this was largely explained by age and income, trending on younger and more affluent members of the public, with a noticeable drop-off in willingness to move away from their area at age 60.
Figure 4: Average willingness to relocate from a flood-prone area, by age
As climate change worsens, more areas across the UK are likely to become prone to flooding. The results from our polling illustrate that there are two major housing-related risks associated with this. First, people on lower incomes with ambitions of becoming homeowners will buy property in areas that are at risk of flooding, likely bearing the brunt of long-term economic difficulties resulting from damages and lost property value. Second, people on higher incomes will move away from areas that become flood-prone, likely damaging the economy in these areas and making them less resilient - triggering a negative feedback loop that will make it difficult for these communities to recover from. These results provide an early indication of the ways in which a lack of climate resilient infrastructure could reshape the UK’s economic landscape and result in some communities being left behind.
Table 1: Breakdown of homeowner groups by age, income, and classification
