Public opinion on a Net Zero retreat ahead of the next election

Since the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, the UK has been caught in an important debate concerning the future of net zero. UK politicians and the public alike have questioned the affordability of this commitment amidst the rising current cost of living and various pressures facing those poorest in our society.

The Prime Minister has so far rejected calls to scrap the UK’s Net Zero commitment, yet as we saw in Wednesday’s speech, he is no longer afraid to roll back on some green policy commitments.

In polling and focus groups that we have carried in partnership with Onward - a poll of 4,010 adults between 8th - 15th August, and eight 2019 Conservative voter focus groups - we tested the electoral impact of a Conservative Net-Zero U-turn. Most notably, the damage it could do to both the Conservative chance for re-election, and the party’s brand.

Firstly, the public remains strongly in favour of Net Zero.

When asked, the public considers tackling climate change to be one of the top five biggest issues facing the UK domestically, more important than Brexit, the welfare state, the level of taxation, the quality and cost of public transport, the state of Britain’s armed forces, and the quality of and access to schools.

Moreover, when asked what the most important issues facing the world are, the threat of climate change was by far considered the most serious by Conservative voters (43%) and the general public (46%).

Our polling has also shown that Net Zero has the support of over half (55%) of the British Public and Conservative voters (50%), and an even larger share believe it is important that we meet this target (64% of the public and 59% of 2019 Conservative voters). Net support is consistently high, even amongst Conservatives who are net +29 more likely to be in support than opposition.

Amongst key Conservative voter groups; those who have moved from the party since 2019 and those who are still intending to vote for them in the next election, the majority believe that the UK should aim to reach Net Zero by 2050. Only a very small portion, 15% of unwavering Conservative supporters and 12% of switching Conservatives, would drop the target outright.

Despite opposition being higher than the general public, there remains a large majority in favour of net zero among Conservative voters, even after the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election.

When we questioned the impact of scrapping Net Zero, we found this to be deeply unpopular amongst the public and Conservative voters alike.

The British public (46%), 2019 Conservative switchers (39%), and stickers (37%), said that if a party dropped Net Zero this would make them less likely to vote for them. For wavering Conservative voters who are now looking to vote elsewhere, almost a fifth (17%) say they could not consider voting for this party and only 6% of this same group would be convinced to vote in favour.

Young people in particular would be less likely to vote for a party that scrapped Net Zero, with 60% of 18-24-year-olds and 52% of 35-44-year-olds deciding that they would be less likely to vote for this party.

We also found that dropping Net Zero would be damaging to the Conservative brand.

Across party allegiance, if a party was to drop net zero, the public would consider it to be stupid, out of touch, extreme, short-sighted, uncaring about the next generation and the economy, selfish, and unscientific. Similarly, Conservative 2019 voters also considered a party who dropped net zero to be out of touch (net +14), stupid (net +10), short-sighted (net +10), uncaring for the next generation (net +14), and unscientific (net +6).

2019 Conservative voters, especially those no longer voting for the party, also think that scrapping net zero would make the Conservative party look incompetent. Conservative party loyalists who plan to continue voting for the party were the only voter group to be unconvinced of this descriptor, yet only 35% disagree with the statement.

Even pausing the Net Zero commitment would not be a vote winner for the party. Those already wavering with the Conservative party line would be unconvinced by this policy, preferring instead to vote Labour (19%) than Conservative (11%). Only party loyalists will remain with the party, yet only by 73% down from 100% that would vote Conservative otherwise.

Across the political spectrum, concerns for protecting the planet for our children, minimising the impact of global warming, and improving air quality have meant that any movement towards pausing or scrapping net zero would risk being seen in these terms rather than as financially sensible.

Finally, despite concerns over the cost of net zero policies, our polling shows that green policies are not blamed for the cost of living crisis.

When asked, the public ranked ‘net zero’ as the least convincing factor of those options given to have caused the increase in both the overall tax burden (only 16% of the public hold this view), and the increased cost of living (only 14% of the public hold this view).

Additionally, the public and different voter groups alike are also not convinced that dropping net zero will mean that the average person will save money on their energy bills. Even Conservative voters believed that is was unlikely to happen.

When asked to consider if the costs outweigh the benefits of the net zero target, 44% of the public think that there will be more financial benefits than costs.

Among Conservatives, a slight majority (41% vs 38%) believe there will be more costs than benefits. However, among this group, 32% still think it would be worth reaching net zero to have a more environmentally sustainable economy. This means that overall 51% of Conservatives believe that the benefits outweigh, or are worth, the costs. Only 1 in 5 Conservative voters therefore hold the view that there are more financial costs than benefits, and net zero is not worth the money.

The electoral impact of Wednesday’s announcement, and subsequent watering down of national efforts to reach net zero, is yet to be seen. However, with public opinion set firmly in favour of the UK reaching net zero, and evidence of the damaging impact on a party failing to do so, the debate over net zero is far from over.

Full polling tables of these results can be found here.