Labour’s outdoor smoking ban would receive less support than past smoking laws

The outdoor smoking ban being considered by the Labour government is likely to face more public scepticism than previous measures to reduce deaths from tobacco use, according to a new poll by Public First.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed last month that his government is considering a smoking ban in outdoor areas, including pub gardens and outdoor restaurants. 

In the past, proposed smoking legislation in the UK has received widespread support from the public. The plan announced last year to effectively make it illegal for those born in 2009 or later to ever be sold tobacco, was supported by 71% of UK adults (YouGov), while a ban on disposable vapes, announced in January, was supported by 83% (YouGov). 

Given these successes, the government might be eyeing another quick political win with its latest proposal. However, this isn’t guaranteed to pay off, with our poll showing far weaker support for banning smoking in outdoor spaces (49%).

A quarter of UK adults describe themselves as regular smokers, either of cigarettes or electronic alternatives such as vapes or heated tobacco products. A further 7% come under the category of ‘casual smoker’, individuals who smoke less than weekly but more often than a few times a year. Perhaps predictably, both of these groups were more likely to oppose the decision than non-smokers. Cigarette and e-cigarettes smokers (33%) were the least likely to support the ban, followed by users of disposable vapes (41%).

A sizeable chunk of adults also describe themselves as former smokers (16%), individuals who used to smoke but have given up the habit. This group has first-hand experience of the negative impacts of smoking on personal health and, as such, might be expected to largely support the mooted ban. Yet surprisingly, only 42% of this group would support the outdoor ban.

Among individuals who never smoke, 58% would support the ban, whereas 23% would oppose it, a notable figure given that most adults are aware of the harm caused by smoking and second-hand smoke inhalation.

Of all outdoor spaces, the public are least likely to support a smoking ban in pub gardens. A ban on smoking at outdoor festivals sees the next-lowest level of support, followed by parks, beaches and high streets. A ban on smoking at sports grounds, in theme parks and outside hospitals receives the greatest amount of support.

Smokers are against a smoking ban for most outdoor spaces, especially pub gardens and outdoor festivals. However, their opposition to the ban is far weaker for theme parks, sports grounds, and areas outside hospitals. 

Interestingly, while 50% of people who frequently attend sport grounds are smokers – compared to 28% of those who go less often or not at all – they are more likely to support a smoking ban here than the general public. 

The reverse is the case for pubs. While 49% of those who visit pubs regularly are smokers – compared to just 25% of people who visit infrequently or never – they are more resistant to the idea of a ban on smoking in pub gardens. 

Adults who voted Conservative in 2019 but switched to Labour in the last election were more likely to oppose the ban than the average voter, whilst adults who voted Labour in 2019 but switched to another party in 2024 were more likely to support it. Labour loyalists showed the highest level of support for the ban (56%).

Whilst support is stronger among some of these key voter groups, the overall high levels of opposition suggest this might not be the best policy to gain favour amongst key voters.

Historically, smoking bans were widely seen as posing no electoral risk. However, our findings suggest that Labour’s recent move may have crossed a critical threshold. While low support doesn’t necessarily translate to strong opposition - as many remain genuinely undecided - the policy's popularity appears to fall well below what Labour likely expected.

Given the mixed public reaction and recent controversies, such as the winter fuel allowance cuts, Starmer must balance the perceived health benefits of the ban with the potential political fallout. A ban risks being perceived as government overreach, possibly alienating key voter groups and undermining public trust, as well as creating dissent within the Prime Minister’s own party.

Click here to download the polling tables.