The public knows the weather is changing, but politics hasn’t caught up yet
This work was undertaken with the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science. We are grateful for funding from Quadrature Climate Foundation.
On 20 May, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) will publish its latest assessment of how well – or poorly – the UK is preparing for the impacts of climate change. Separate to the Committee’s reporting on emission reduction pathways, this focuses on how the country performs in coping with the impact of weather both today and in the near future. For the UK, the near future will bring more wet winters and dry, hotter summers.
To date, political efforts have mostly focused on reducing the causes of climate change, rather than managing its effects. That’s not a criticism – it’s a valid approach that deals with the problem at its source. But, as British weather changes year on year, cutting carbon is no longer enough to protect our public services, infrastructure and livelihoods. We also need to adapt.
Any policy change requires political will, and that is shaped by the public. As with political efforts thus far, much of what we know about public attitudes towards climate focuses on high-level concern about the problem and support for emission reduction solutions. Far less is known about how the public thinks about how climate is impacting the UK today, and what should be done to ensure the country can continue to function in the face of both wetter and warmer weather.
At Public First, we spend a lot of time trying to understand what the British public thinks. We use a range of methods to do this in a way that is robust and representative – coupling quantitative analysis with on-the-ground research, meeting people where they’re at and building our understanding of how they think from there. We spend hours speaking to people in their local shops, cafes and pubs, as well as in the more traditional setting of a focus group or online poll.
This approach has taught us the following things about how the British public thinks about adapting to climate change.
1. People can see that the weather is changing but there’s no settled language for describing it.
Across the country, there is a strong sense that British seasons have changed. From their own lived experience, people perceive that winters feel milder and wetter, and summers are longer and hotter than they used to be. Older people directly compare this to their childhood and while younger people have less of their own life to compare it to, they accept that the weather is shifting. More than half of people agree that flooding, storms and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe, and the majority (58%) blame climate change compared to “other reasons” (23%).
Figure 1: Percentage of people who agree flooding, storms and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe.
Source: Public First Polling | UK Adults | Sample Size: 4644 | Fieldwork 16 Jan - 25 Jan 2026 - In your view, how has the frequency/severity of the following changed in the UK, if at all?
What is less settled is how people describe these weather changes. Many do not naturally use or accept terms like “extreme” or “severe”, remarking that overall, the UK’s weather has long been relatively mild compared to other countries. When we asked polling respondents which terms they would use to describe UK weather, the most common response was “none of these”, with “unpredictable” performing next best.
It’s clear that there is broad agreement across the public that the weather is changing, but not on how to talk about it. For public figures and decisionmakers, that means ensuring that messaging is grounded in people’s everyday lives of how they experience climate impacts, rather than relying on technical language.
Figure 2 - Messaging around weather becoming increasingly unpredictable resonated better than extreme or severe, but the most commonly selected was ‘none of these’.
Source: Public First Polling | UK Adults | Sample Size: 4644 | Fieldwork 16 Jan - 25 Jan 2026 - For each of the following please indicate which you would be MOST likely to use to describe weather in the UK.
2. Impacts are expected immediately
Climate impacts are often seen as a future problem for another government or another generation, but the public places this issue well within today’s political cycles.
Not only do people recognise that the UK’s weather has already changed, but they expect it to worsen soon. Around nine in ten (87%) people expect the UK to be affected within the next five years, including nearly two-thirds (63%) who anticipate significant or moderate impacts. Those that think the UK will be significantly affected rises from 17% within five years to 27% in as near as 20 years.
Figure 3 - Nine in ten people think the UK will be affected by weather and climate change in the next 5 years, and expect its impacts to worsen over time.
Source: Public First Polling | UK Adults | Sample Size: 4644 | Fieldwork 16 Jan - 25 Jan 2026 - Thinking ahead to the next X years, to what extent do you think the UK will be affected by weather and climate change?
3. Weather changes are already making life harder
The public already feel the tangible effects of changing weather in their daily lives. Two-thirds (66%) say they have been affected by weather events such as flooding, heatwaves and storms in the past year. These experiences range widely. For some, it is minor inconvenience: a delayed train, a disrupted journey, a change of plans. For others, it’s more serious: repeated flooding, difficulty insuring a home, or financial loss.
People also fear that weather impacts will exacerbate their current cause for concern: the cost of living. The public expect changing weather to push up food prices, energy bills and insurance costs, often more than they expect it to affect health or direct physical safety.
People broadly understand the knock-on effects of how weather impacts eventually hit their pockets: poor harvests lead to higher food prices; damage to infrastructure leads to higher bills; flood risk affects property values and insurance. They also see farmers as being particularly highly exposed, given that many people instinctively link changing weather patterns to crop yields and food supply.
Figure 4 - The public believes that changing weather patterns will have a direct impact on their costs, with cost of living issues coming out as the main concerns.
Source: Public First Polling | UK Adults | Sample Size: 4644 | Fieldwork 16 Jan - 25 Jan 2026 - To what extent do you think the weather will impact any of the following?
4. The country doesn’t feel built for the weather it has, let alone the future
Across both polling and immersive research, people describe a country that struggles when the weather turns. Transport systems falter, roads flood, public services are disrupted. They point to housing that is not designed for heat, and infrastructure that is not built for heavier rainfall. There is a widely held perception that the UK “comes to a standstill” in bad weather. In the public’s mind, the weather itself is seen as beyond anyone’s control, but the damage it causes is not.
When asked to assess preparedness by weather type, the public believes the UK is least prepared for flooding (70% said not prepared). This is followed by heatwaves (68%), dry spells and drought (66%), wind storms (66%), and cold snaps (57%). Even so, respondents judge the UK as largely unprepared across all weather categories.
Figure 5 - The UK is seen to be least prepared to deal with flooding
Source: Public First Polling | UK Adults | Sample Size: 4644 | Fieldwork 16 Jan - 25 Jan 2026 - Thinking about the country on the whole, how well or poorly prepared do you think the UK is to reduce the impact of each of the following?
Most people believe that better planning could reduce the severity of weather impacts, even if they are not always sure what that looks like in practice. When asked directly, a majority (60%) say it is possible to reduce the effect of climate impacts, but they are uncertain of how. In qualitative research, where people do point to solutions, they tend to focus on what they can see. Flood defences, improved drainage, and better road maintenance came up repeatedly, often alongside concerns about blocked drains or building on floodplains. Their instinct though is preventative: people talked about planning ahead, fixing problems early, and avoiding damage rather than dealing with it after the fact.
Figure 6 - Most are unsure what can be done to reduce climate impacts in the UK
Source: Public First Polling | UK Adults | Sample Size: 4644 | Fieldwork 16 Jan - 25 Jan 2026 - Do you think there are things the government can do to reduce the impact of climate impact in the UK?
5. Flooding cuts through but not always as a climate issue
Flooding stands out as the most visible and emotionally resonant risk to the public, compared to drought or heat for example. Flooding is both visible and familiar, often tied to someone’s experience of local disruption to roads or football pitches, and to property values or insurance. It’s also where public perceptions around resilience is weakest with around 70% saying the UK is not prepared to deal with flooding.
While flooding could be seen as the poster issue for raising the salience of climate adaptation, some caution is required. Flooding is not always understood primarily as a climate issue. People frequently see it as a drainage, planning and development issue. While climate change is seen as contributing to the problem, it is not consistently blamed for its occurrence or damage.
Other weather risks are seen differently. Heatwaves are often viewed in more mixed terms. Warmer sunnier weather is generally seen as a positive thing while people also recognise the health risks for more vulnerable groups. Drought tends to be associated with agriculture and food production rather than with direct impacts on household finances or everyday life.
This matters for how climate adaptation is communicated. While there is widespread awareness that the weather is changing and concern around it, public understanding of individual weather risks is fragmented and often shaped by local experience. That means broad, one-size-fits-all messaging may not land when it comes to specific risks or actions. People are more likely to engage when the issue is tied to concrete, familiar impacts and where climate explanations feel proportionate to what they see happening around them.
6. Government is expected to lead as part of a shared effort
Most people think preparing for weather impacts should be a shared effort between government, businesses and individuals – Figure 7. But in practice, they still look to government to take the lead in being responsible for both preparing for and responding to severe weather – Figure 8. Local councils and utilities follow close behind because of their role in running services and maintaining infrastructure. Individuals and businesses are seen as part of the picture, but more secondary. Given that the public expect action, but are unsure of what that should look like – as shown in FIgure 6 – it falls on the government to provide leadership on what adapting to climate impacts actually involves.
Figure 7 - More than half of people think that responsibility for preparing for weather impacts should be shared equally between government, businesses and individuals.
Source: Public First Polling | UK Adults | Sample Size: 4644 | Fieldwork 16 Jan - 25 Jan 2026 - Which of the following comes closest to your view?
Figure 8 - The government and public bodies are seen as the actors most responsible for preparing and responding to severe weather events.
Source: Public First Polling | UK Adults | Sample Size: 4644 | Fieldwork 16 Jan - 25 Jan 2026 - Which of the following actors should be responsible for preparing for/responding to the impacts of more frequent and severe weather events? Select all that apply.
7. It’s time to strengthen delivery before attention rises
The public recognises that climate change is already impacting the UK’s weather and believe that the country is poorly prepared to deal with its effects. But, as an issue, it has yet to reach a level of high public salience as with other more pressing concerns, such as the cost of living, NHS or immigration.
This represents a narrow window of opportunity for policy progress. That opportunity can only be realised if our decisionmakers and institutions strengthen their capability, coordination and delivery of policy solutions. So that our ability to prepare and respond improves before public attention to the issue increases. The focus should now be on building that capacity, clarifying responsibilities and embedding resilience into our policymaking processes, before salience increases.
If attention rises first – driven by a major weather event or climate-related shocks – policy responses are more likely to be reactive and short-lived. The public recognises that the weather is changing. They expect impacts in the near term. They are already experiencing the consequences, particularly through rising costs and disruption. They believe the UK is not well prepared. And they expect government to lead.