What do Americans think of ceasefires?
4 in 5 Americans say that a ceasefire has been violated if a country launches strikes on the other
Joint ceasefires receive high levels of approval, but even unilateral ceasefires garner majority support
In a hypothetical conflict, only roughly a third of Americans (36%) approve of the US leader ignoring the other side’s ceasefire declaration
Yesterday (8 Jul), President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran to be over. But in the minds of many Americans, the ceasefire might have ended only days after it was declared.
In a survey that we ran just as high-level negotiations were taking place (16–18 June 2026), we found that 4 in 5 (80%) say that a ceasefire has been violated if a country launches strikes on the other after one is declared. This is despite earlier attempts by US officials to frame the ceasefire as ongoing, amidst “defensive” strikes on Iran.
If a country launches strikes on another after a ceasefire has been declared, do you think the ceasefire has been violated?
Source: Public First, online nationally representative survey (US), 16–18 June 2026, n=1,986.
Americans generally hold a black-and-white view of ceasefires. 62% say they expect the cessation of all violence when a ceasefire is called, in striking contrast to how the parties to the Iran war continued to launch strikes at each other as the ceasefire “held”. Ceasefires are also seen as fragile in the public’s eyes, as 58% say that a ceasefire is unlikely to endure if it is violated, and only 25% think the opposite.
When a ceasefire is called, which of the following do you expect?
Source: Public First, online nationally representative survey (US), 16–18 June 2026, n=1,986.
If a country launches strikes on another after a ceasefire has been declared, how likely is it that: the ceasefire will endure?
Source: Public First, online nationally representative survey (US), 16–18 June 2026, n=1,986.
The continuation of hostilities throughout the ceasefire may explain why some are not surprised at the reignition of the war. For the American public, the fighting never stopped, and the ceasefire between both sides ended months ago.
Unilateral ceasefires
At one point in April, Trump also unilaterally extended the ceasefire with Iran just hours before it was to expire, but no official response was forthcoming from Iran. To understand what Americans think about unilateral ceasefires, we presented them with three vignettes following the prompt, “The United States and State X are at war with one another”:
“The United States and State X declare a joint ceasefire.” (n = 213)
“State X declares a ceasefire. The United States does not respond.” (n = 222)
“The United States declares a ceasefire. State X does not respond.” (n = 228)
We used a fictitious “State X” in place of a real country for a cleaner treatment effect; only 41% said that State X was Iran.
Our results showed high approval for joint ceasefires, but also majority approval for a unilateral ceasefire initiated by the US. Approval is highest when the US secures a joint ceasefire at 62%, and this drops to 50% (p = 0.02) if the US declares a unilateral ceasefire and the opposing state does not respond, as in our scenario that mirrors real-world events. This approval sinks to 36% (p < 0.0001) when State X is the one unilaterally declaring a ceasefire and the US ignores it.
To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way the United States handled the situation?
Source: Public First, online nationally representative survey (US), 16–18 June 2026, n=663.
Interestingly, it is not entirely clear to Americans that all fighting will stop even after a ceasefire is jointly or unilaterally declared. Half of Americans believe the US will stop all attacks on State X if there is a joint ceasefire (51%), and an equal proportion think that State X will stop all attacks on the US (51%). But only 37% (p = 0.005) and 25% (p < 0.0001) think the US and State X respectively will cease all attacks if the US’s unilateral ceasefire is ignored. On the other hand, when State X’s ceasefire declaration is ignored, a mere 28% (p < 0.0001) and 43% (p = 0.16) perceive that the US and State X respectively will cease fighting entirely.
How likely is it that... [Shown: Likely]
Source: Public First, online nationally representative survey (US), 16–18 June 2026, n=663.
Similarly, there are mixed views about whether ceasefires reflect a commitment to stop fighting, though the results here are a bit more optimistic about de-escalation. 59% and 54% of Americans think the US and State X respectively are committed to ending the conflict with a joint ceasefire, with this decreasing to 50% (p = 0.04) and 31% (p < 0.0001) respectively if the US ceasefire is ignored. In contrast, 41% (p = 0.0001) and 60% (p = 0.21) see the US and State X respectively as committed when the US ignores State X’s ceasefire.
On a scale of 0–10, how committed do you think either are to ending the conflict? [Shown: Committed (6+)]
Source: Public First, online nationally representative survey (US), 16–18 June 2026, n=663.
This data shows us that from the US public’s point of view: (1) joint ceasefires are the most popular and strongest indicators of commitment to cessation of violence, (2) even a unilateral ceasefire subsequently ignored by the other party commands majority support from the public, and (3) ignoring the other side’s unilateral ceasefire can elicit backlash from the public.
As the US-Iran ceasefire comes to its official end, our findings here show that for many Americans, it may have unofficially met its end months ago. The question for US leaders now is how to reach another joint ceasefire, though they should know that the public would back even a unilateral one.
